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| Greg Wood: Smith right to question Arkle's rating British Horseracing Authority handicapper will look at Timeform's clanger, dropped when the organisation had only recently turned its attention to jump racingEvery sport has magic numbers: Don Bradman's batting average, Jack Nicklaus's 18 majors, even David Beckham's No23, chosen as a tribute to Michael Jordan. And in racing, we have Arkle's Timeform rating of 212, three digits that sum up the finest steeplechaser the sport has seen and, in the opinion of many, ever will see.Like many of these famous numbers, Arkle's 212 has acquired the status of a cherished heirloom, to be passed from one generation of fans to the next. Any suggestion that it might be a somewhat exaggerated measure of his brilliance is seen as sacrilege, and an attempt to belittle Arkle's achievements.Yet a rating is, as Ruby Walsh pointed out on Sunday, "only a person's opinion". In the light of Kauto Star's remarkable performance in the King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Saturday, it may now be time to nail that 212 for good as an aberrant opinion that has been accorded a status it did not deserve, in part because it was the only one around.The case against is crushingly simple. The next horse in Timeform's all-time list is Flyingbolt, Arkle's stablemate, on 210, followed by a 19lb gap to Mill House and – as of Saturday – Kauto Star on 191. So we are being asked to believe that of the hundreds of thousands of steeplechasers to have raced since the mid-1960s, two were nearly a stone and a half better than all the others, and they just happened to occupy adjacent boxes.It is not just very unlikely that chasing talent could be distributed in such a way across a half-century of horseflesh. It is many millions-to-one against – so implausible in statistical terms, in fact, that it is effectively impossible.Arkle made such an impression in his pomp that he has many devoted fans even now. They don't like it when you point this out, and grope around for counter-arguments. A personal favourite is the Coe-Ovett analogy. They were the best two middle-distance athletes in the world, the argument goes, and both from England. It's the same sort of thing.It isn't, of course. To be a fair comparison, Coe and Ovett would have needed to be breasting the tape when the rest of the field was still running the final bend. In fact, it is another reminder that no two individuals can ever be that far clear of the opposition.Does it really matter? In some senses, no. Even the fuzziest of Boxing Day brains could appreciate the extraordinary performance that unfolded down the straight at Kempton. Kauto Star was magnificent, all the favourite-backers were paid, and the warm glow as they headed for home was not diminished by the knowledge that, according to Timeform's figures, Arkle would have beaten him by 21 lengths.But at a time when racing needs to promote its heroes like never before, that 212 remains a burden that every subsequent chasing champion is forced to bear. Whatever their achievements, they are doomed to be second – indeed, third – best.Timeform, in its quiet and endearingly British way, has been serving punters admirably for many decades. That 212, though, was a definite clanger, dropped at a time when the firm had only recently turned its attention to jumping.Phil Smith, the British Horseracing Authority's senior handicapper, is currently attempting to put a mark of his own on Arkle – and Flyingbolt and Mill House for that matter – using contemporary data, which will hopefully bring some reason to the "who's the best?" debate. It will be published at the end of May, along with the official Anglo-Irish ratings which, depending on the outcome of the Gold Cup in March, could show that Kauto Star has advanced still further on his current BHA mark of 195.It may seem like an arcane debate, but the urge to compare generations is one that followers of every sport share, and racing fans more than most. Smith's task is a thankless one, and if he knocks 10lb or more off Timeform's mark, there are those who will never forgive him.But a credible estimate of Arkle's ability is long overdue, and now more so than ever, since there is, for the first time since the 1960s, a rival who is closing the gap.Horse racingGreg Woodguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds guardian.co.uk |
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